Amazon vs. eBay- Which way does the wind blow

eBay Q3 and Q4 results are not very joyful for the eBay board of management, and neither for the eBay sellers community.

Tough, The eCommerce company posted third quarter revenue of $2.12 billion, up $228 million from the same period last year. Net income on a GAAP basis was $492 million, or $0.38 per diluted share, and non-GAAP net income was $592 million, or $0.46 per diluted share.

well, In the marketplace business, revenue was up 4% y/y. GMV was down 1% y/y and the catch is advertising that spiked to 127% y/y. this means more banner ads, skyscrapers, home page placements, and the increase of paid links on the site- This misses the target of eBay as pure eCommerce marketplace rather then advertise source. this is why in my opinion eBay is going to the wrong direction.

On the other side of the riverbank, Q4 emerging results and especially the Pre Christmas season: No matter how you slice it, Amazon is killing it this holiday season. most categories including electronics, games, home & garden, jewelry, apparel, are selling above expectation. as Scot Wingo wrote: “it is on fire”.

Amazon has definitely went from a book store to a full-fledged dept store, where 2008 was the turning point for this event.
Nevertheless, still the big question is: where go to eBay store Vs. Amazon store is on the long run- Amazon indeed. if you need to bet your horses.. we put our on the Amazon stallion.

on the long tail analysis: we would see that eBay stock price has gone from around $40 in its peak on Oct 07, to a low-tide of $14.45 as of today – same point where the stock have been back in the end of 2003.

On the other hand, Amazon. Amazon stock price is somewhere around $53.16 when it climbs back to the level of after Q2 2007 staggering results (sales and operating income) that push share price from $44 to $62.

Bottom line. Considering the general recession and the downfall on wall st. – the winds of eCommerce says slowdown. but we can definitely see that the one that has become wise to survive this crisis and keep as much as possible on the share value is Amazon (this is based by looking on the last Q3 and Q4 share price behavior) and also on the analysis recommendations. as far as concerns to the big picture.. on the long run- we do see declination in eBay share price when amazon keeps somewhere steady and above.

But Market isn’t blind- The figure talk for themselves, take a look at the market value for both eBay and Amazon in the Last 2 years.

Here is a chart that compares eBay Vs Amazon for a period of 2 years from Dec-06 to Dec-08.

Check also the analyst Opinion coverage during the past year:

eBay results:

Amazon results:

Yes indeed, the results are clear : 8 Downgrades for eBay vs. 1 to Amazon. Amazon also got more upgrade rather then eBay.

Date: 11/2008	People	Month Δ	Year Δ	What is this?
ebay.com	70,497,339	10.1%	-11.1%	The number of people visiting a site.
amazon.com	62,566,298	14.7%	11.4%

Date: 12/20/2008	What is this?
ebay.com	Velocity reports the relative change in daily Attention. Velocity is used to determine the relative growth of a domain over a particular timeframe or compared to other sites. Velocity is an effective way to measure the impact of planned (or unplanned) events, such as new advertising campaigns, product/service launches or general site growth. Simply choose an event date as the starting point to see how it has affected a site’s attention over time.
amazon.com

Date: 11/2008	Attention	Month Δ	Year Δ	What is this?
ebay.com	2.34074530%	4.0%	-19.5%	The total time spent on a domain as a percentage of the total time spent online by all U.S. Internet users.
amazon.com	0.54935258%	34.7%	9.6%

Amazon scaling has started back in May 2007, ever since it seems just going up and biting eBay percentage share one by one. eBay unshakable control of eCommerce market is getting weakened every month.

Therefore, Selling on amazon has become a major key to success in every merchant/retailer that sells online. failing going into amazon market might result in diminish of the business in the long run.

well we can definitely say that : eBay’s problems are Amazon’s gains. and you merchant need to hurry up and get on the Amazon train, and start sell on amazon

P.S- i’ve found this interesting Fox interview, which worth watching:

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